Ihuriro ry’ibigo by’ubutasi bya Amerika, US Intelligence Community, ryasohoye icyegeranyo cy’uko isi ishobora kuzaba imeze mu 2040.

Iri huriro ry’ibigo by’Ubutasi, riraburira politiki idahamye hamwe no kwiyongera ko guhangana kw’amahanga cyangwa se n’intambara.

Iyi raporo Global Trends 2040 bise kandi ‘A More Contested World‘ igizwe no kwiga ibiriho ikareba ibishobora kuzabaho, ni iya karindwi isohotse kuva mu 1997 aho isohorwa buri myaka ine n’ikigo National Intelligence Council.

Kugerageza kubona uko bizaba byifashe mu bihugu no hagati y’ibihugu mu myaka iri imbere kw’ibi bigo by’ubutasi, ubu kurerekana ko bitazaba ari byiza. Mbere na mbere bashingiye ku bintu by’ibanze byazana impinduka. Kimwe ni politiki idakomeye.

Iyi raporo iburira ko “mu bihugu byinshi, abantu ntibafite icyizere cy’ejo heza kubera kwiyongera kw’abategetsi batizeye n’inzego babona nk’izidashoboye cyangwa zidashaka gukemura ibibazo bikomeye by’ubukungu, ikoranabuhanga n’ibireba rubanda.”

Demokarasi zidakomeye

Ivuga ko abantu bari kugenda bagana ku mitekerereze ikomatanyije, basaba za leta zabo byinshi kandi binyuranye mu gihe izo leta ziri kugorwa n’ibyo zikora.

“Iki kinyuranyo hagati y’ubushobozi bwa za leta n’ibyo abaturage bazitezeho biboneka ko gishobora kwiyongera kikaganisha ku bibazo bya politiki, birimo kwiyongera k’ubuhezanguni, guhirimbanira uburenganzira no kwigaragambya, aho bikabije hakaba urugomo, intambara mu gihugu cyangwa se gusenyuka kwa leta”.

Kubera imbuga nkoranyambaga n’ikoranabuhanga, ibyitezwe na rubanda bitakozwe bishobora gutera ikibazo kuri demokarasi. Iyi raporo iburira ko “urebye imbere, demokarasi nyinshi zizugarizwa n’isuri ikabije nk’iyo cyangwa gutembagara”, nubwo ubutegetsi bw’igitugu nabwo buzahatembagarira.

Icyorezo ‘cyahungabanyije isi’ bikomeye

Iyi raporo ivuga ko icyorezo kiriho ubu “aricyo kintu kimwe cyahungabanyije isi bikomeye kuva ku ntambara ya kabiri y’isi”, cyateje amacakubiri, gitera impinduka ziri kubaho harimo no kwerekana ubushobozi bwa za leta mu guhangana n’ibiza.

Raporo nk’iyi iheruka mu 2017 yari yaravuze ibisa nk’ibi – yatekerezaga ko “icyorezo ku isi mu 2023” kizagabanya bikomeye ingendo kugira ngo birinde ko gikwirakwira.

Abanditse iyi raporo nshya bemera ko batari biteze Covid-19, bavuga ko “yashegeshe ubushobozi bw’abantu bwo kwihangana, igatera ibibazo mu bukungu n’imiyoborere”.

Ihindagurika ry’ikirere n’iyimuka ry’abantu bajya gutura ahandi kimwe n’ikoranabuhanga n’ibindi bintu bikomeye bizatera impinduka z’ejo hazaza.

Guhatanira ijambo

Ku rwego mpuzamahanga, abasesenguzi biteze ko muri iyi myaka 20 iri imbere kwiyongera mu guhatanira kugira ijambo ku isi bizagera ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane kuva mu ntambara ya II y’isi, kubera gucika intege kw’imiryango yo gutanga umurongo ku isi nka UN/ONU.

Imiryango itegamiye kuri leta, harimo n’amadini na za kompanyi nini z’ikoranabuhanga bishobora kugira imbaraga zo guhangana na za leta ndetse no kuzicaho. Ibyago by’ubushyamirane cyangwa intambara bishobora kwiyongera, kuko bizaba bigoye kumenya neza intwaro ziri kwifashishwa.

Imitwe y’iterabwoba ishobora gukomeza ariko iterabwoba rishingiye ku bintu nk’irondaruhu, kurengera ibidukikije no kurwanya leta bivuye ku buhezanguni bishobora kuzamuka mu Burayi, Amerika y’Epfo na Amerika ya ruguru.

Imitwe itandukanye ishobora gukoresha ubuhanga bwa ‘Artificial Intelligence’ igateza akaga kurushaho cyangwa igakoresha ikoranabuhanga mu gutoza abantu gukora iterabwoba bitabaye ngombwa ko bahura.

Guhatana hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika nibyo zingiro ry’ibintu byinshi bishobora kuzaba, mu gihe kimwe gikomeye kurusha ikindi cyangwa se byombi binganyije imbaraga bikagabanya isi mo ibice.

Raporo nk’iyi ya 2004 yavugaga ko hashobora kuzazamuka ‘caliphate’ mu burasirazuba bwo hagati, iyisa n’iyo Islamic State yashatse gukora mu myaka 10 ishize, nubwo iyo raporo, yarebaga imbere mu 2020 – itigeze ifata neza guhatana k’Ubushinwa ari nako guhanze intekerezo z’umutekano wa Amerika ubu.

Ikiba kigamijwe muri rusange nkuko BBC ibitangaza, ni ukureba ibishobora kuzaba ejo hazaza kurusha kugena neza neza ibizaba. Muri iyi raporo nshya, intekerezo imwe y’ibizaba ihuza icyizere cy’ibyiza no kwitega ibibi.

Itekereza isi iri mu kaga mu 2030 kubera ihindagurika ry’ikirere, inzara n’imyivumbagatanyo, ariko ibi bikaganisha ku bufatanye bushya bushingiye ku mahuriro rusange ya rubanda, yo gukemura ibibazo.

Birumvikana ko ibivugwa byose bishobora kutaba, kubaho kwa bimwe cyangwa hakaza ikindi kintu gishya. Intego, nk’uko abayanditse babivuga, ni ugutegura ibishoboka byose ahazaza, nubwo byinshi muri byo biboneka ko atari byiza.

Munyaneza Theogene / intyoza.com